NCAA Tournament March Madness

#211 Tarleton St

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Projection: need to automatically qualify

Tarleton State's projection is driven by a resume that features heavy road losses at major-conference stops like SMU, LSU, Baylor and Cincinnati that undermine any at-large hopes while its best moments are limited to midmajor wins such as road victories at Rice and Southern Utah and home wins over Cal Baptist, TAM C. Christi and Merrimack. The Cowboys have also suffered damaging results against conference foes, dropping games to Utah Valley, Abilene Christian and Utah Tech both at home and away, so the profile contains too many blemishes for the committee to reward without a standout win. Road success against quality opponents is scarce, so the absence of a marquee victory leaves the safer route to the NCAA field through winning the conference’s automatic berth. Remaining league games include home chances against Abilene Christian, Southern Utah, Utah Tech and UT Arlington along with difficult trips to Utah Valley and Cal Baptist, so there is still time to change the narrative but the current balance of best moments and worst moments explains why the projection points toward the conference tournament as the key path.

Date Opponent Ranking Outcome
11/3@SMU38L96-76
11/5@LSU55L96-60
11/8TAM C. Christi188W85-77
11/11Merrimack162W76-62
11/14@Baylor45L94-81
11/20@Rice231W90-74
12/1@Cincinnati51L76-58
12/16@MS Valley St365W88-64
12/19Florida A&M332W78-54
12/29@UT Arlington168W69-63
1/1Utah Valley88L91-85
1/3Cal Baptist120W81-76
1/8Abilene Chr232L84-80
1/15@Southern Utah267L106-105
1/17@Utah Tech178L75-71
1/21@UT Arlington168L71-64
1/29Utah Valley88L83-55
1/31Utah Tech178L65-59
2/5@Cal Baptist120L56-55
2/7@Southern Utah267W62-59
2/14@Abilene Chr232L73-59
2/16Abilene Chr23267%
2/19Southern Utah26773%
2/21Utah Tech17856%
2/26@Utah Valley8815%
2/28@Cal Baptist12023%
3/5UT Arlington16853%